OPEC hopes lower fuel prices will stimulate more demand in the long run
The rupee depreciated 39 paise to an all-time low of 82.69 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday as elevated crude oil prices and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and firm American currency sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 82.68 against the greenback, then slipped further to 82.69, registering a fall of 39 paise over its previous close.
India's largest crude oil producer Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is on the verge of reporting "losses" on every barrel of crude oil that it sells due to the high subsidy burden that it has to bear. This would be the first time that ONGC will post negative margins on crude oil sales. This loss comes at a time when crude oil producers around the world are making windfall profits due to record highs in oil prices.
The world would face a looming oil supply crisis because of drop in the production, Iran's OPEC governor has warned, adding that crude is still undervalued and set to hit $100 in the short term.
Rising production from OPEC as well as the US also weighing on prices
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
The men with guns tend to know little finance, and establishing such a conspiracy then involves leakage of information, which is also dangerous, Ajay Shah points out.
The Indian aviation sector is on the cusp of a change as airlines look to induct a record number of aircraft. This, analysts said, will put the sector on a growth runway, though keeping it viable for only long-term investors. According to Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities, expectations of strong air traffic, coupled with low penetration, is the prime reason for a solid long-term outlook.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
Shipments of sunflower oil to India have started normalising after imports from war-torn Ukraine resumed beginning September after a gap of four months, leading to further normalisation of supplies. Ukraine has been the largest supplier of sunflower oil to India. However, after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in February, supplies from Ukraine dwindled as Russia denied it access to the Black Sea ports.
Puri said the government has a moral duty to provide energy at affordable rates to consumers.
The low global crude prices have helped narrow the current account deficit to just 0.2 per cent of GDP in the previous January-March quarter.
Global financial markets are not yet fully factoring in any escalation in the Israel-Palestine geopolitical conflict, said Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest weekly note to investors, GREED & fear. The pertinent point about ongoing events in West Asia from a financial market perspective, according to him, is that, despite much talk about a pending ground invasion of Gaza, no such invasion has yet happened. "This is beginning to make GREED & fear wonder if it is ever going to happen.
BPCL's impending privatisation and RIL's stake sale to Saudi Aramco raise questions about the future of the West Coast Refinery, once touted as the world's largest.
Benchmark Brent oil futures prices more than halved between June 2014 and January 2015.
Lower crude oil prices would impact India's inflation, CAD.
There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
The broader NSE Nifty slipped below the 10,500-mark by falling 103 points, or 0.97 per cent, at 10,482.20. It touched a high of 10,645.50 and a low of 10,464.05 during the day.
Signs of a strong pickup in hiring by companies are adding to the rosier outlook for Indian households.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
Global oil prices have slumped and India has access to larger amounts of discounted Russian crude oil, yet refiners are not passing on their savings to consumers
Investor wealth eroded by Rs 4.46 lakh crore in a single day on Friday with the benchmark BSE Sensex tanking more than 1 per cent in line with global stocks rout. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 885.60 points or 1.08 per cent to close at 80,981.95 with 25 of its components declining and five ending with gains. During the day, it nosedived 998.64 points or 1.21 per cent to hit an intra-day low of 80,868.91.
It's the sovereign right of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to decide on the oil production capacities, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said Friday. Refraining from commenting on the controversial decision of OPEC on cutting oil production by two million barrels a day, which has taken the world by surprise, Puri said it is likely to be scrutinized very carefully. During an interaction with a group of Indian reporters, he said that India as one of the major consumers of oil and gas also has a major say in the global oil market.
OPEC was in continuous talks with the World Energy Forum and the International Energy Agency to ensure market stability.
The world's fourth-biggest oil and gas consumer imports nearly three-quarters of its energy requirements
Soon, you will see the birth of the hottest commodity futures in the world -- diamond derivatives.
Officials from India's biggest private refiner recently visited Iran to chalk out the details for resumption of trade ties with Tehran.
Among the 30 Sensex firms, Asian Paints, Infosys, JSW Steel, UltraTech Cement, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HCL Technologies and Tata Steel were the biggest laggards. Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ITC, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank were the gainers.
A looming global shortage of diesel in Europe presents India with more than one opportunity to profit from strong margins. A shortage of the fuel, a key contributor to inflation, has been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, and western sanctions on Russian fuel supplies. The slowdown in natural gas supply means the West needs diesel to heat their homes this winter.
Petrol price can go down to Rs 75 a litre across the country if brought under the ambit of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), but there is a lack of political will, which is keeping Indian oil product prices at one of the highest in the world, economists at SBI said on Thursday.
A combination of strong earnings and economic growth, and hopes of the Federal Reserve ending the rate-hike cycle have pushed gross buying of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (IPO) to a new high. In 2023, FPIs have been gross buyers of shares worth Rs 25.5 trillion, the highest ever in a calendar year. FPIs also sold shares worth Rs 23.9 trillion. On a net basis, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.6 trillion, the highest since 2020.
Total income from operations, however, dipped 27 per cent to Rs 68,261 crore.
Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
'China's economy continues to slow and the US Fed may still hike rates before the end of the year.'
Movement in the stock market this week will largely be driven by global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Equity benchmark indices, which are on a dream run for the past several days, will also track trading in global oil benchmark Brent crude and movement of rupee against the US dollar. "The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is scheduled for mid-September, but before that, the market will be closely watching upcoming US economic data.
India expects to remain unscathed this time, mainly because it is in a sweet spot as the world's third largest oil consumer, after the US and China, says Subhomoy Bhattacharjee.
The government on Friday approved an electric-vehicle policy, under which duty concessions will be given to companies setting up manufacturing units in the country with a minimum investment of $500 million, a move aimed at attracting major global players like US-based Tesla. According to an official statement, the companies setting up manufacturing facilities for e-vehicles will be allowed to import a limited number of cars at lower customs duty. The policy seeks to promote India as a manufacturing destination for EVs and attract investment from reputed global EV manufacturers, it added.
Global supply is staying in excess of demand.
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